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Illustrative example of VIAL results 


This page shows ILLUSTRATIVE and completely FICTIONAL outcomes and results of a VIAL study. The purpose of this site is to introduce interested readers to the types of outcomes and insights VIAL can produce. 

The outcomes below are all AVERAGE outcomes from 10,000 simulations. 

We have included results from both the "Baseline" scenario, and alternative  scenarios in this page. The alternative scenarios focus on changes in product prices or availability years. 

You can compare the results of these different versions of the future by turning on the "compare with..." function below:

Assumptions used for the scenarios (yellow cells indicate changes from baseline)

1. Market demand

Millions of doses, average of 10,000 simulations

Note: The market demand chart shows how we might expect the market to develop if there are no supply constraints, i.e. if there is unlimited supply of preferred productsThe overall probability of this outcome coming to fruition can still be relatively low, and will not say anything about the range or variance of outcomes (see next chart for range)

2. Product demand ranges by 2027 (unconstrained demand)

Millions of doses. Distribution of 10,000 simulations. Wider areas entail a higher likelihood of demand ending in that range

Note: This chart shows a vertical ‘slice’ of the unconstrained demand chart (chart 1). Product demand ranges represent the range of possible outcomes to help visualize future uncertainty. The height of the bar indicates the demand (in millions of doses), while the width indicates the number of simulations at that level. 

Market outcomes: 

We assume the following production capacity limits to assess potential supply shortages and reallocate demand in the following graphs

3. Estimated production capacity by product

Millions of doses, N/A indicates years when products are not available

4. Likelihood that market demand outstrips supply across 10,000 draws

Percentage, N/A indicates years when products are not available

5.Market outcomes after taking into account supply constraints

Millions of doses, average of 10,000 draws

Note: This chart shows a potential simulation of how demand might be "reallocated" under constrained supply. Not all countries can get their preferred product and so have to go for another option. Our reallocation prioritizes running (already introduced) and larger countries, over NVIs and smaller countries.  Compared to unconstrained demand, some products get more demand because some countries take their second or third preferred product (because the preferred product is  not available). The chart also shows how some products gain more demand from countries that introduce the product as a second best option, because preferred product is not available.

6. Demand met with first-choice product vs. non-preferred product

Millions of doses, average of 10,000 draws. Re-allocation based on available supply. Running, larger countries take priority over NVIs and smaller countries

Note: This is a summary chart of chart 5. It shows the proportion of the market that is made up of countries getting their preferred product, countries that get a reallocated product, and proportion of demand that is "unmet". Unmet demand represents amounts of demand that is not possible to meet through the preferred or alternative products. Reallocated product represents countries that are not able to get their preferred product and have been moved on to second or third preferred product.  

7. Product utilization after reallocation

Percentage of product available supply that is met by demand.  N/A indicates years when products are not available

8. "Healthy Market" Indicators by 2027

The higher the percentage, the higher the likelihood that market results in suboptimal outcomes based on the market indicators

©2019 by Dalberg Advisors

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